Challenging the Greenhouse Effect Specification and the Climate Sensitivity of the IPCC

Main Article Content

Antero Ollila

Abstract

The greenhouse effect concept has been developed to explain the Earth’s elevated temperature. The prevailing theory of climate change is the anthropogenic global warming theory, which assumes that the greenhouse (GH) effect is due to the longwave (LW) absorption of 155.6 Wm-2 by GH gases and clouds. The actual warming increase to 33°C of the Earth’s surface temperature according to the present GH effect definition is the infrared downward LW radiation of 345.6 Wm-2 emitted by the atmosphere. The atmosphere’s temperature is the key element behind this radiation. According to the energy laws, it is not possible that the LW absorption of 155.6 Wm-2 by the GH gases could re-emit downward LW radiation of 345.6 Wm-2 on the Earth’s surface. In this study, the GH effect is 294.5 Wm-2, including shortwave radiation absorption by the atmosphere and the latent and sensible heating effect. This greater GH effect is a prerequisite for the present atmospheric temperature, which provides downward radiation on the surface. Clouds’ net effect is 1% based on the empirical observations. The contribution of CO2 in the GH effect is 7.3% corresponding to 2.4°C in temperature. The reproduction of CO2 radiative forcing (RF) showed the climate sensitivity RF value to be 2.16 Wm-2, which is 41.6% smaller than the 3.7 Wm-2 used by the IPCC. A climate model showing a climate sensitivity (CS) of 0.6°C matches the CO2 contribution in the GH effect, but the IPCC’s climate model showing a CS of 1.8°C or 1.2°C does not.

Keywords:
Greenhouse effect, climate change, Earth’s energy balance, climate sensitivity, climate model

Article Details

How to Cite
Ollila, A. (2019). Challenging the Greenhouse Effect Specification and the Climate Sensitivity of the IPCC. Physical Science International Journal, 22(2), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.9734/psij/2019/v22i230127
Section
Original Research Article

Article Metrics


References

Henderson MDH, Henderson-Sellers A. History of greenhouse effect. Progr Phys Geography Earth and Environ. 1990;14:1-18.

IPCC. The Physical Science Basis, Chapter 8.1. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge; 2011.

IPCC. The Physical Science Basis, Policymakers summary, Climate change, The IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge; 1990.

IPCC. The Physical Science Basis, Chapter 1.5, Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge; 2007.

Pierrehumbert RT. Infrared radiation and planetary temperature. Phys Today. 2011;64:33-38.

Michell JFB. The “greenhouse” effect and climate change. Rev Geophys. 1989;27:115-139.

Kiehl JT, Trenberth KE. Earth’s annual global mean energy budget. Bull Amer Meteor Soc. 1997;90:311-323.

Schmidt GA, Ruedy RA, Miller RL, Lacis AA. Attribution of the present-day total greenhouse effect. J Geophys Res. 2010;115,D20106:1-6.

Ollila A. The roles of greenhouse gases in global warming. E&E. 2012;23:781-799.

Ollila A. Warming effect reanalysis of greenhouse gases and clouds. Phys Sci Int J. 2017;13:1-13.

Ollila A. Dynamics between clear, cloudy and all-sky conditions: Cloud forcing effects. J Chem Biol Phys Sc. 2013;4:557-575.

Stephens GL, Wild M, Stackhouse Jr PW, L’Ecuyer T, Kato S, Henderson DS. An update on Earth’s energy balance in light of the latest global observations. Nat Geosc. 2012;5:691-696.

Chernykh IV, Alduchov OA, Eskridge RE. Trends in low and high cloud boundaries and errors in height determination of cloud boundaries. Bull Amer Meteor Soc. 2001;82:1941-1947.

Wang J, Rossow WB, Zhang Y. Cloud vertical structure and its variations from a 20-yr global rawinsonde dataset. J Climate. 2000;13:3041-3056.

Kokhanovsky AA, Rozanov VV, Lotz W, Bovensmann H, Burrows JP. Global cloud top height and thermodynamic phase distributions as obtained by SCIAMACHY on ENVISAT. Int J Rem Sens. 2011;28: 836-844.

Zhang Y, Rossow WB, Lacis AA, Oinas V, Mischenko MI. Calculation of radiative fluxes from the surface to top of atmosphere based on ISCCP and other global data sets: Refinements of the radiative model and the input data. J Geophys Res. 2004;109:1149-1165.

Gats Inc. Spectral calculations tool; 2015.
Available:http://www.spectralcalc.com/info/help.php

HITRAN. Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, The HITRAN (high-resolution transmission molecular absorption) data base; 2018.
Available:https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/hitran/

Mlawer EJ, Payne VH, Moncet J-L, Delamere JS, Alvarado MJ, Tobin DC. Development and recent evaluation of the MT_CKD model of continuum absorption. Phil Trans Ser A Math Phys Eng Sc. 2012;370:2520-25.

Hartmann DL. Global Physical Climatology, Elsevier Science, USA; 2015.

Ekholm N. On the variation of the climate of the geological and historical past and their causes. Quart J Royal Meteor Soc. 1901;27:1-62.

Miskolczi FM. Greenhouse effect and IR radiative structure of the Earth’s atmosphere. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2010;7:1-27.

Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Kiehl JT. Earth’s global energy budget. Bull Amer Meteor Soc. 2009;90:311-324.

Ollila A. Clear sky absorption of solar radiation by the average global atmosphere. J Earth Sc Geotech Eng. 2015;5:19-34.

Ohring G, Clapp PF. The effect of changes in cloud amount on the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere. J Atm Sc. 1980;37:447-454.

Harrison EF, Minnis P, Barkstrom BR, Ramanathan V, Cess RD, Gibson GG. Seasonal variation of cloud radiative forcing derived from Earth radiation budget experiment. J Geophys Res. 1990;95: 18687-18703.

Ardanuy PE, Stowe LL, Gruber A, Weiss M. Shortwave, longwave, and net cloud-radiative forcing as determined from Nimbus 7 observations. J Geophys Res. 1991;96(D10):18537-18549.

Loeb HG, Wielicki BA, Doelling DR, Smith GL, Keyes D, Kato S, Manalo-Smith N, Wong T. Toward optimal closure of the Earth's top-of-atmosphere radiation budget. J Climate. 2009;22:748-766.

Raschke E, Ohmura A, Rossow WB, Carlson BE, Zhang Y-C, Stubenrauch C, Kottek M, Wild M. Cloud effects on the radiation budget based on ISCCP data (1991 to 1995). Int J Clim. 2005;25:1103-1125.

Myhre G, Highwood EJ, Shine KP, Stordal F. New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases. Geophys Res Lett. 1998;25:2715-2718.

Berk A, Bernstein LS, Robertson DC. Modtran. A moderate resolution model for lowtran 7; 2017.
Available:http://forecast.uchicago.edu/Projects/modtran.orig.html

UAH MSU dataset; 2019.
Available:https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis; 2019.
Available:https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

Stephens GL, Wild M, Stackhouse Jr PW, L’Ecuyer T, Kato S, Henderson DS. The global character of the flux of downward longwave radiation. J of Climate. 2011;25:2329-2340.

Kauppinen J, Heinonen JT, Malmi PJ. Major portions in climate change: Physical approach. Int Rev Phys. 2011;5:260- 270.

Stine AR, Huybers P, Fung IY. Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature. Nature. 2009;457:435-441.

Hansen J, Gung I, Lacis A, Rind D, Lebedeff S, Ruedy R, Russell G, Stone P. Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Three Dimensional Model. J Geophys Res. 1998;93:9341-9364.

Shi G-Y. Radiative forcing and greenhouse effect due to the atmospheric trace gases. Science in China (Series B). 1992;35:217-229.