The Greenhouse Effect Calculations by an Iteration Method and the Issue of Stratospheric Cooling
Issue: 2020 - Volume 24 [Issue 7]
Antero Ollila *
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Emer.), School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Otakaari 1, Box 11000, 00076 AALTO, Finland.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
The anthropogenic global warming theory is based on the greenhouse effect (GH), which is due to the longwave (LW) absorption by GH gases and clouds according to the IPCC. This LW radiation downward is the imminent cause for the GH effect increasing the surface temperature by 33°C. It has been shown that latent and sensible heating are essential parts of downward LW radiation and the total GH effect. In this study, an iteration method utilizing this basic GH effect mechanism has been applied to simulate the warming impacts of enhanced GH effect changes. The results are compatible with the Transient Climate Response (TCR) of 0.6°C. The issue of stratospheric cooling due to increased CO2 concentration has been calculated and analyzed. The stratospheric cooling effect is real but its impact on the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) has been shown to be negative and not positive as generally implied. The reason is that the decreased absorption of LW radiation in the atmosphere always decreases the GH effect. This result challenges the new concept of the ERF that is the sum of Instantaneous RF (IRF) and rapid adjustments as applied in General Climate Models (GCMs). If the stratospheric adjustment has the opposite effect, then the IRF values would be also wrongly calculated in these models. Two independent validation methods were applied to test the temperature impacts of CO2 concentration increases.
Keywords: Greenhouse effect, climate change, stratospheric cooling, climate model.