Seasonal and Solar-Cycle-Phase Distributions of Solar Flares, Solar Proton Events, Intense Geomagnetic Storms, and Ground-Level Enhancements, 1996–2024
Gyebre Aristide Marie *
Norbert ZONGO University (UNZ), Koudougou, Burkina Faso and Laboratory of Analytical Chemistry, Space and Energy Physics (L@CAPSE), Koudougou, Burkina Faso.
Kabore Salfo
Norbert ZONGO University (UNZ), Koudougou, Burkina Faso and Laboratory of Analytical Chemistry, Space and Energy Physics (L@CAPSE), Koudougou, Burkina Faso.
Segda Abdoul Kader
Norbert ZONGO University (UNZ), Koudougou, Burkina Faso and Laboratory of Analytical Chemistry, Space and Energy Physics (L@CAPSE), Koudougou, Burkina Faso.
Ouattara Frédéric
Norbert ZONGO University (UNZ), Koudougou, Burkina Faso and Laboratory of Analytical Chemistry, Space and Energy Physics (L@CAPSE), Koudougou, Burkina Faso.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Background: Solar eruptions and their near-Earth consequences vary across the solar cycle, but the apparent distribution of disparate event classes requires comparable event definitions and observation windows.
Objective: To describe seasonal and solar-cycle-phase frequencies of C-, M-, and X-class solar flares, solar proton events, intense geomagnetic storms, and ground-level enhancements during 1996–2024.
Methods: Publicly catalogued observations were tabulated by event onset year and calendar-month season. Phase comparisons were divided by the number of years assigned to each phase, whereas seasonal comparisons used event shares and calendar-day exposures.
Results: The catalogued totals were 33,636 C–X flares (29,704 C, 3,683 M, and 249 X), 187 solar proton events, 127 intense geomagnetic storms, and 22 ground-level enhancements. Autumn accounted for 27.3%, 29.9%, 43.3%, and 36.4% of these four event classes, respectively. For all four classes, the largest events-per-year frequency was observed in the years designated as solar maximum. No ground-level enhancement was assigned to the minimum-phase years.
Conclusions: The descriptive patterns are compatible with solar-cycle modulation and, for geomagnetic disturbances, a possible equinoctial contribution. The distributions alone do not establish terrestrial-season causation of solar eruptions, nor do they quantify catalog completeness or cross-event causal relationships.
Keywords: Solar flares, solar energetic particles, solar proton events, geomagnetic storms, ground-level enhancements, solar cycle, seasonality